Global M&A activity surged in 2025, with total deal value expected to reach $4.8 trillion, marking the second-highest total on record, according to Bain & Company. The recovery was driven largely by large transactions, including megadeals above $5 billion, many from companies that historically have not been frequent acquirers. Scope-driven deals accounted for nearly 60% of large transactions, focusing on capabilities, adjacent markets, or new business models.
For CFOs, these trends highlight the need for careful capital planning, more precise modeling, and strengthened diligence processes that capture strategic, cultural, and talent-related impacts, in addition to financial metrics. Valuations rose to 11.6 times EBITDA, with U.S. targets driving most of the incremental deal value.
AI has played a growing role in both identifying targets and guiding buy-side decisions. Nearly half of strategic technology deals involved AI-native companies, and 45% of deal teams used AI tools for financial review, data analysis, and scenario modeling. In some cases, AI analysis directly influenced deal decisions.
CFOs will need to incorporate these tools while maintaining judgment in areas where AI cannot fully assess risk. Despite M&A representing just 7% of corporate cash spending in 2025, rising capex and R&D investment indicate heightened scrutiny for deals. Companies that strengthen valuation approaches, integrate AI insights, and plan for capability-driven acquisitions will be better prepared for the shifting deal environment in 2026.
