U.S. CFOs are heading into 2026 with persistent concerns about tariffs, inflation, and labor constraints, while accelerating investment in artificial intelligence, according to the latest CFO Survey conducted by Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business in collaboration with the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta. The survey, which polled 548 finance leaders between mid-November and early December, shows tariffs remaining the top risk to business planning, though concern has eased slightly from the previous quarter. CFOs also continue to flag demand uncertainty, labor quality gaps, monetary policy, and inflation as key pressures shaping decision-making.
Despite those headwinds, CFOs expect prices to continue rising, with the median firm projecting a 3.5% increase in product and service prices in 2026. Employment growth is expected to remain modest, with companies forecasting a 1.7% increase in full-time headcount and wages rising by roughly 3%. While a majority of firms plan to expand their workforce, about 15% expect to reduce staffing levels. Broader economic expectations remain steady, with CFOs projecting 1.9% real GDP growth next year, even as overall economic optimism has softened and large-company confidence in their own prospects has declined.
AI investment is emerging as one of the most decisive shifts in CFO priorities. Nearly four in five large companies invested in AI in 2025, and adoption among smaller firms is expected to surge in 2026, reaching similar levels. CFOs see AI as a driver of productivity, faster decision-making, and improved customer experience rather than a near-term lever for headcount reduction or cost savings. The data suggest that while macro uncertainty continues to weigh on outlooks, capital allocation decisions are increasingly focused on technology investments aimed at operational efficiency and long-term competitiveness.
